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Former Chinese official sees 'dark clouds'
By Tom Evans; Sr. Writer, AMANPOUR.
(CNN) - Declaring "I see a lot of dark clouds on the horizon," a former top official in the Chinese Foreign Ministry said the U.S.-China relationship is at a critical moment and any further deterioration will not be good for world peace.
Victor Gao, a director of the China National Association of International Studies, told CNN's Christiane Amanpour that China views the recent U.S. arms sale to Taiwan "as a major kind of a step to upset China's national interest."
Gao said U.S. President Barack Obama's decision to sell $6 billion dollars worth of weapons to Taiwan and to meet with the Dalai Lama in Washington this month are "miscalculations" based on a misreading of Chinese positions on what he called "these fundamental issues."
His comments came as U.S.-China relations are under increasing strain on a number of fronts, not just the issues of Taiwan and Tibet. There are also frictions over charges that China has hacked into Google, over trade relations, and over U.S. allegations that Beijing is manipulating the value of its currency to benefit Chinese companies.
But it's the Taiwan arms deal that appears to have upset China the most, even though Taipei has bought U.S. weapons before, and Washington is not selling it new F-16 fighter jets on this occasion.
Taiwan - which Beijing regards as part of its sovereign territory - is buying what the U.S. calls "defensive weapons," including Black Hawk helicopters and Patriot anti-aircraft missiles.
In response, Beijing has taken the unprecedented step of saying it will impose sanctions against the U.S. defense contractors that will make the weapons.
Gao hinted at the possibility of even broader economic retaliation.
"China is now the largest creditor nation to the United States. Just imagine if China buys less of the Treasury bonds or stops buying the Treasury bond for a couple of months - what it will mean for the national interest of the United States, but also for China because China itself will be hurt if China takes such extraordinary measures."
–Victor Gao, China National Association of International Studies
Gao also raised the possibility that Beijing will find it harder to cooperate with the U.S. on diplomatic issues such as Iran and North Korea. "On the one hand, the United States needs China's help; on the other hand, China is hurt because the United States displays a complete disregard for China's fundamental interests," he said.
Beijing is feeling empowered right now and believes it can dictate to the United States, said Victor Cha, a former U.S. National Security Council official responsible for Asian affairs.
"I think what we're seeing in terms of Chinese attitudes really is a sense that they feel they are in the driver's seat, vis-a-vis the United States, after what they consider a pretty successful year of dealing with the Obama administration," Cha told Amanpour.
David Rothkopf, a former U.S. trade official, agreed, saying Beijing is posturing.
"I see the whole thing really as an effort by the Chinese to test President Obama and see how far they can push him," Rothkopf said.
Cha dismissed the idea that China could use its holdings of some $800-billion of Treasury bonds to influence U.S. diplomacy. He called it a "mutual hostage game" in which the Chinese would cause themselves tremendous damage if they suddenly dumped a bunch of U.S. Treasuries to try to teach the U.S. a lesson.
He said one of the initial mistakes of the Obama administration was to give China the status of a global power before the Chinese were able to take on that role - and that's caused disappointment in Washington and anger in Beijing.
Rothkopf said the tensions between the U.S. and China also have a lot to do with the fact the Obama administration began by swinging too far in one direction and then swinging too far back in the other.
"Year one of the Obama administration saw a stance towards China which was too soft," he added. "This year has opened with a tough stance on Google and a tough stance on these arms sales."
Rothkopf said hopefully there will now be real balance in the bilateral relationship. "I think it's time for a new kind of doctrine. We need to develop a kind of doctrine of interdependence," he said.
But he warned that China could hurt itself if it continues to flex its muscles. "It's really popular in the United States to go after the Chinese. In fact, it's too popular," Rothkopf said.
"It's a trap for President Obama. It's a trap for any president. You want to score points? Make China the bogeyman."
@camanpour on Twitter
The Chinese are trying to flex their muscles for nothing, so why now? All the former American Presidents have been doing and nothing has changed? I hope the American President maintain their stance of fighting for human rights and democracy.
They are threatening America for selling arms to Taiwan, what about for all the rogue states in Africa, where they are proping up those dictators by selling the weapons to kill and maiming defenseless people in Africa. All African states like Sudan, Zimbabwe just to name a few, they are the ones who are causing all these problems. They are wiping African resources from wild animals to minerals as well as coming to Africa looking for agricultural farms for their own produce. They invest and bring their own staff to Africa, they do not care about impating the knowlege to Africans so that they can sustain themselves but the just want to get what they want and go back to China after the resources have been exhausted.
China is a wiked country and have got double standards. They have got no respect for human rights at all thats why they ended up building palaces for the dictaors at the expense of other people's lives. How can someone have a normal life when they live in those refuge camps in Sudan for over 30-40 years. I hope these old generation of African leaders will go soon and we will change our continent for we are now living in a dynamic world and people have to adapt to that.
AFRICA WAKE UP!! YOU BUILD YOUR COUNTRIES FROM WITHIN NOT FROM OUTSIDE!!! taking your monies and investing in other countries and start pleading poverty to the international communities.
What a shame!!
2 years ago I told my friend at my office that one day China is going to use 20 air carriers and move close to Taiwan.
A couple of months ago I heard on CNN that China was trying to train their navy with Brazilian Air Carriers.
I think the US should help Taiwan be close to China (more trade, less restrictions, more trust). Giving them arms will make China use 5 times more if one day they decide to move in an overwhelming way into Taiwan, and what is the US going to do with a force twice in size of what they have? ... leave Taiwan on their own I imagine.
Surely, China is one of the big players now. And China wants to show it. I hope that in the end there will be a real balance in the bilateral relationship between the US and China. Otherwise it would be dangerous for us all.
But there are some Chinese actions or reactions which really disturb me.
China´s engagement in Africa. Rudo you are right, it´s also my opinion. China is only looking for Africa´s resources, etc, and is selling weapons to dictators. And when you look in "China Daily" (Xinhua, I read it regularly) there you can read, China does great development work in Africa. I´ve my doubts. But in this way they do it also in Vietnam ond other countries. And China´s fight on piracy? It´s because China wants to controll the way the oil, minerals and natural resources come to China. Another place, South China Sea, where oil is found, China´s Navy is there.
And in China itself: I think China wouldn´t have reached its economic power without the millions of migrant workers, who live under degrading conditions. It´s easy for China to push them around.
Meanwhile China exports them with their investment in other countries, and even there they must live under miserable conditions.
Another point is, that after the Olympics China has increased rigorously the restrictions on their own people. And all under the name of protect them for pornographie, unhealthy news and whatever. I think the Chinese people themselves know what good or bad for them.
No other big economic power is able to controll the business as China.
And finally, China´s rhetoric. You have "to hail" China or China says, pay attention or you damage the relationship between us and your business relations here in China.
And to Iran: China does big business there. I think, no sanctions.
And I think it´s not good always to obey China only for economical reasons.
(Some of my thoughts to China)
In a Democracy the President must play to the gallery and in the case of USA China bashing is popular. Pres Obama may be smart to go along that route but ultimately one has to face God. Americans have to face God.
In my travel both in China and the USA, I see disparity in standards of living. The Chinese have a long way to go to catch up with the American standard of living. For God sake let the China improve their own peoples' lives. Why all these interferences and conspiracies?
Granted they put down a rebellion in TianMen. The scale of brutality pales in comparison to what the Americans did in Iraq and Haiti; the Japanese did in Nanjing.
This is not about who speaks loudest win. Have a heart! Learn to live as a citizen of this planet for a change. That is the change we want.
The last writer really needs to wake up and get acquainted with the real face of the regime in Beijing. I don't know where he hails from, but probably he can be part of changing his government. I too am governed by consent. The EVIL regime in Beijing murders and butchers anyone who it feels might be a threat, even if they have no political agenda – simply having a value system is enough. So, wax lyrical all you like about China, but never forget they are effectively an illegitimate government, use brutality to destroy anyone who disagrees (forget about voicing anything – even if reasonable e.g. "my child was killed by official corruption when the school collapsed on him" – Off to prison and a beating, especially if you keep on about it) There is NO moral equivalence. By the admission of senior Chinese, they could teach the Nazi's alot about the use of Power.