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Taliban expert: Afghan offensive likely first of many
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By Tom Evans; Sr. Writer, AMANPOUR.
As U.S., British, and Afghan troops move deeper into insurgent-infested areas of southern Afghanistan, one of the world's leading authorities on the Taliban said Thursday the offensive is likely to be the first of many coalition attacks this year and next.
"You will have to repeat this many times in the next year or 18 months all over the country, particularly in the south, but in the east you have to clear these provinces around Kabul, you have to push the Taliban back," Ahmed Rashid, a journalist and author of "Descent into Chaos" told CNN's Christiane Amanpour.
"The Taliban control most of the south and a lot of the east. They control some of the provinces. They have a very strong presence around Kabul, and I think that's where the next Western offensive will be."
The coalition offensive in and around Marjah in southern Helmand Province - involving 15,000 soldiers and Marines - is all about bringing governance to a critical area of Afghanistan, Rashid told Amanpour.
"It is first of all the poppy area. It is the concentration of the Taliban. And it was also the supply route for logistics into Pakistan, where a lot of their recruits and logistics come from," he added.
"If you can settle that area, win the confidence of the people, certainly that would be a big blow" to the Taliban.
The British general in charge of the southern region of Afghanistan, Maj. Gen. Nick Carter, echoed the importance of bringing good governance to Helmand province.
"The fact of the matter is that in the 10 or 12 districts that really matter to us in the south, I think we can be confident that we are in support of the Afghan government, winning the argument about delivering better governance to that which the Taliban are delivering," Carter said.
But he warned it will take NATO-led military forces "another 25 to 30 days to secure that which needs to be secured" in Helmand, and a further three months to ensure insurgents are kept from the area.
As he was speaking, sources told CNN that at least one more Afghan Taliban leader has been seized in neighboring Pakistan by security forces.
Mullah Abdul Salam was arrested last week, according to Afghan government officials, Taliban sources, and a U.S official.
The arrest comes on the heels of the apprehension in Karachi of the Taliban's number two figure, and overall military commander, Mullah Abdul Ghani Baradar, in a joint U.S. and Pakistani operation.
Rashid told Amanpour that the arrest of Baradar though could hinder efforts to reconcile with the Taliban. "Even if the Pakistanis want to use him now as a mediator, and they set him free, you've tainted him."
Rashid said Baradar is very close to the head of the Afghan Taliban, Mullah Mohammad Omar, and went to Saudi Arabia with his permission to participate in tentative talks about the possibility of reconciliation with the Afghan government.
"There were talks much earlier in the spring of last year in Saudi Arabia, but there have been talks this winter again in Saudi Arabia," he said. "And in fact several of the Taliban leaders have been in Saudi Arabia meeting with the Saudis and also meeting with representatives of the Afghan government."
Asked why the Pakistanis had agreed to arrest Baradar now, after years of U.S. pressure to take action, Rashid said the Pakistanis wanted to send a very firm message to the Taliban and to the Americans.
"If there's going to be any talks or dialogue between Kabul and the Taliban, Pakistan will have to be the main broker or mediator... you know, 'don't go into talks without telling us, because we (the Pakistanis) are the key players here."
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I wish you had raised the subject of innocent Bahais, being harassed, deprived, jailed and tortured in Iran just for being Bahais following their religion – in your interview with Larijiani of Iran today. May be next time. The other issue is the rulers in Iran being men of religion why are they thriving on lies and heaps of lies everytime they open their mouth. Why cant they preach love, brotherhood and values instead of hatred, blood and murder.
Is the war in Afghanistan a war of ideologies, cultures, or the war between good and evil. The fear of Taliban and the lack of any strong and dependable alternative is what is preventing the local support to the Afghan Forces and the NATO troops. Afghans surely believe post 2011 when the US withdraws its troops leading to the disintegration of the afghan troops and revenge by the taliban against the western supporters.
What western war strategists need to understand is that Taliban are a ideology and this can be countered with only an equally strong and popoular ideaology a leadership needs to emerge with appeal across the country. Home grown leadership which talks about popular public issues health education welfare. I fail to understand the failure of the west in poverty stricken Afghanistan you feed them clothe them educate them provide opportunity for a secure future and the Taliban will eventually die.
So what will be the next step for Pakistan after the second top leader of Taliban arrested in Pakistan. What will be Pakistan's role on Afghanistan?
If this is a new turn how this will affect the negotiation with Taliban?
Poor bahais or rich hypocrites who plunder on aid money, and exhibit wealth through feasts and grand wedding parties in Kabul, while there country-mates die of hunger and war in the rest of the country? Those poor bahais are known very well for their generosity to Haifa. Those bahais are very well-known for their interference in politics here in Afghanistan.
I am really interested on what you are analysing on politicts with painful realistical questions overseas. I want to express my idea on which the topic is: Is Taliban going to negotiate with the government of Afghanistan? the answere is yes and no!!!!!!!!
She might helped you more than any afghan government representative or any opositions had already interview with you in the past. She is the woman in war,,, wow!!! how beautiful and real express she had, was droped out from heart of the afghan people.
I want to focus on some vital points of wrong strategy of US in Afghanistan.
1. US did believe on its elder and important war partner PAKISTAN (specially ISI) more than Afghan key services as a local. It is still unclear for the people of Afghanistan whether the war will getting finish or not, if yes when and by what price it will get end.
2. The importance of war against Taliban got ignore and all consideration focused on Iraq war which it was a critical mistake of US, they thought we have finished the war inside Afghanistan. It may caused by what US have most believe on PAKISTAN on thier consultancies. Each of Afghan citizen knowing this which the PAKISTAN will never wants to handover the war without huge and enermouse benefit from the US and NATO countries even thier defeat which is more preciouse for them to have more dominations in Afghanistans anykind sources, i want you to conduct a research and find what and how much sources smuggled to PAKISTAN during the civil war since 1992 despite of devastation of foundamental infrastructures.
3. Afghan people is quit upset of what have been done and is doing with innocent citizens by wrong method of war against Afghanistan. It is understanding by the people inside Afghanistan which war continuation, corruptions increasing, non infrastructure projects implemented yet by US international supports is based on thier long term domination till they get success in middle east (specialy Iran). May this idea is wrong and it will be created because of lots of illetracy effect.
4. Taliban negotiation is possible if:
The coalition forces should get out from Afghanistan now before negotiation start , which is not acceptable for both sides International Communities and Afghan people because there is not granttee for peace being settle. They will accept this negotiation without this conditions if PAKISTAN wants and US make PAKISTAN sure which they will have thier long term benefit by having super active Taliban representatives inside Afghan governmental administrations. In other hand it is an obligation for PAKISTAN to do support both sides; International Communities in order to proof they are against Terrorism inside region and Taliban either becuase if Taliban feels which PAKISTAN is going to terminate them from Afghanistan & pakistan across borders, they can infilter inside PAKISTAN community easily and make trouble for them. PAKISTAN and International Communities both have concern regarding infiltration of Taliban inside PAKISTAN and reach to Neuclar Weapon of PAKISTAN.
I am always following your Amanpour International Interviews, actually i am a civil engineer not a politician, but interested.