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Will Russia finally turn on Assad?
Q&A with Christiane Amanpour: What’s next for diplomacy for Syria?
By Samuel Burke
What is the next step for diplomacy in Syria?
A meeting of the so called “Friends of Syria” in Paris, later this week. The British Foreign Secretary William Hague has told me that more than 100 countries will be represented there. They want to ratchet up the pressure on Bashar al-Assad, hoping to impose even more sanctions on the regime. In addition, they hope to convince those countries which have yet to be involved to join in applying sanctions.
More pressure would be derived by compiling evidence of all human rights abuses, including torture, so that one day they may be used in a court of law against Assad. In the event that the ‘Annan Plan’ doesn’t work, Hague says they will seek a Chapter 7 Resolution at the United Nations, which would include more muscular sanctions with consequences.
Is the latest peace plan going to work?
Probably not. The Western nations, as well as Russia and China, have a different view of exactly what was agreed to. The West believes it achieved an agreement to a transitional governing body in Syria, which will inevitably mean that Assad has to step down. However, Russia is saying, ‘not so fast.’
So yet again, there are semantic and substantive arguments over the way forward, and how much and how hard to push Assad. The Russians want no part of regime change, and that remains a major sticking point. At the same time, the West does not want to intervene militarily, nor does it want to arm the opposition on the ground. So it looks like we’re still in the phase of talking, pressure and sanctions.
Is Syria turning into a sectarian conflict?
The opposition denies that it’s a sectarian conflict. But there are disturbing developments over the last several weeks. June has been the deadliest month in Syria’s protracted uprising, and there’s no doubt that more weapons are being delivered to the opposition.
There have been attacks on Christian churches and neighborhoods, as well as some attacks on Alawite neighborhoods. The opposition says this is a deliberate ploy by the Assad government to justify the need for his “stabilizing” leadership. According to the U.N., the lion’s share of the atrocities is being committed by the Assad regime.
Why hasn’t Assad fallen like Tunisia’s Ben Ali, Egypt’s Mubarak, Libya’s Gadhafi or Yemen’s Saleh?
Because Assad decided to dig in and there was no external pressure to cause him to step down. Also there is a segment of the population that really does worry that without Assad, Syria would simply split apart and become a violent, sectarian civil war. Also, the Alawites who surround Assad, are a minority sect, fearful of what might come after Assad. That is one compelling reason why many in the ruling hierarchy haven’t abandoned him.
What happens if Assad is no longer in place?
That’s the big question – which is why the West is so reluctant to intervene. They simply don’t know what might come afterward. This is also why some in Syria are scared, believing he’s the only one who can keep the country together. But the truth of the matter is if the West were willing to get to know and understand the opposition, they could help organize them and do what they’ve done in similar situations in the past. This is what’s been done in other parts of the world with dictatorial governments acting against the interest of the West and the U.S.
Merely to say “we don’t know what comes later” is to abandon responsibility. There are ways of identifying the opposition and enabling a post-regime government to take place. That’s what they say they’re doing in these “Friends of Syria” meetings, but you don’t’ really see any evidence of that. The thing to keep an eye on is if the number of Syrian defections picks up. If it does, that could cause the regime to implode.
@camanpour on Twitter
I can swear this guy is either high or is in total denial, "the west is reluctant to arm the opposition" & "the west doesn't want to interfere" and "the west fear for what comes next"... Is the west other than NATO member states and stooges involved in arming, financing, covering diplomatically and by media, demonizing their enemy which is the Syrian population & their state, trying their best to push for another 'regime change' in another 'rogue state' that doesn't comply with the west's 'democracy' and 'way of life'?
It's a shame such a great country be ruled by such delusional people, the world would have been a better place.
forgot to mention: Do you ask UK FM if Russia will finally turn on Assad? Why not ask the Russians and they'll give you a correct answer than the cunning minister?
Russia will never turn on Assad, because he knows what the Syrian people want. He knows the truth of what is happening in Syria. He knows the USA and Clinton are arming the terrorists and killing innocent people including children. Hillary Clinton is the one with blood on her hands. We have seen time and time again the weapons she has funded in the hands of children. We have see footage of the Clinton backed FSA butchering and beheading innocent people and massacring children, for one reason only to blame the government so that Clinton can get her hands on Syria. We have seen how CNN reporters have deliberately blown up gas pipelines in Syria and how this station is part of the propaganda for war.
Syria will not fail we will overcome the crises and we will stick with the president through thick and thin know the facts and the truth and just give up on destabilizing our beloved homeland even more we will not fail because countries on the outside wants us to, we will clean up the actual terrorists and we will give our government the time for reforms we ask for, and finally to answer the topic question to you and to the world NO Russia will not turn not on president Bashar Al Assad or the people of Syria that you don't see on the news the people that are going through with their daily lives the people that are going out in support of our president and are beautiful country, Syria has forever and will forever not be the one to fall we are the best at overcoming events such as this or the rule of the ottoman empire or the french occupation or the foreign attacks in the past and present we will overcome, thank you for the news stations that are telling the truth and shame on the ones that even consider themselves honest reporters.
No, my country (Russia) does not endorse any NATO grab of Syria in a calculated move against Iran and Russia. the fact that the FSA is financed by al-qaeda or Saudi Arabia should alarm anyone who believes in decency...but all in service to Israel, I suppose.
Why don't you go ask yourselves why you still support Bahrain, despite them massacring their own people?
What the so called friends of Syria are doing is a shame. imposing system of governance similar to western democracies is utterly wrong. Chinese success has proved that progress can not only come with such systems. Let the people of Syria decide not the "FRIENDS" of Syria, who are in fact the real enemies of Syria.
The trauma in Syria will continue to unfold as there are too manyy factions that now attempt to represent the opposition. Many of the opposition are well funded by outsie Arab and Muslim factions. The Kurds will turn up the heat as they were definetely ignored at the conference. More people will continue to die. Outside supporters of the various groups will start ot provide more advancd weapons to the opposition More defectors will defect from Syrian military. Assad will either be left with little control of the country, assasinated, or will be forced to leave. All sides will now turn up the heat which will take Syria into deeper peril. What the rest of the world will do in the meantime is a big question. Many countries have had to experience civil war and Syria is no different. What Syria will look like a year from now is anyone guess.
israel,nato,seoudi arabia,qatar + criminal turkey which is part of nato leave syria to the syrian people,you destroyed lebanon,irak,egypt,afghanistan,libya,and now trying to destroy syria for the sake of israel ,and you turkish criminal government ,look to your past, you destroyed a whole nation by killing half of its people,15000000,THE ARMENIAN people,now you are helping the criminals in syria to kill more innocent people ,and occupy some land from syria,each DOG has its day,you turkish government,your days will come too.
Whether Russia turns on Assad is a mute point. Russia, along with China have lost all credebility in the area. President Putin is an autocrat who doesn't tolerate dissent. Both Assad & Putin are birds of a feather...that flock together. Assad's father committed a massacre in Hama in 1982, killing upwards of 10,000 people (yes...ten thousand...!). The atrocities the current regime has committed, rival those of the 1982 massacre in Hama. Anyone believe that if Assad with the support of the Russian military had the opportunity to gas his own people, they'd hesitate for a second? It's only today's hi-tech satellites and communication gear that prevent such action.
israel,nato,seoudi arabia,qatar + criminal turkey which is part of nato leave syria to the syrian people,you destroyed lebanon,irak,egypt,afghanistan,libya,and now trying to destroy syria for the sake of israel ,and you turkish criminal government ,look to your past, you destroyed a whole nation by killing half of its people,15000000,THE ARMENIAN people,
Why are the last nazi war criminals, like Alois Bruner, hiding in Syria? Nesselrode sent Porphy Uspensky to de-Hellenize the Antiochians which led to Michel Aflaq founding the Nazi Ba'ath party which is why ras-Putin hid Saddam's WMD in Syria! Ohlig & Puim show Islamic extremism came from Syriac miaphysates, products of Chrysustolm trying to consummate the Channukah crimes of his Seleucid forefathers. ("Questioning is the subversion of faith" Homily I on I Timothy I- Such was the dark mind that led Justinian to abolish the universities and Olympics and bring on the plagues.) Ochrafuxy is the mother of Islam and bolshevism because they reject Aristotle in favor of Plato. We need a Christian Samaritania buffer state surrounding Israel. We need to give the Balkans back to the aboriginal Albanian Pelasgians to prevent soviet access to the straits. Iran and North Korea both share borders with Russia and are ras-Putin’s ploy to raise oil prices which is why we must fearlessly pursue the therminucular rapture against the magog’s attempt to destabilize the Saudis.
russia and china are both decieving assard and its regime a situation whereby russia and china are enjoying peace and destroy syria with socall allies.hundreds of people are dying every day.guess what those blood will catchup putin assard and china..soon.
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