I don't think I’ve ever sparked more curiosity online, than last year – after a clip surfaced from 2008 when I said Osama bin Laden was most likely living in a villa in Pakistan – not in a remote cave. That was three years before he was killed, indeed in a villa in Pakistan. Watch the back story here.

The U.S. isn’t going to disappear in a year or two

On the one year anniversary of the mission that killed Osama bin Laden, two experts on counter-terrorism appeared on Amanpour – to consider the rise and fall of Al Qaeda and the man who will forever be its enigmatic face.

As if to punctuate the occasion, President Obama had just arrived unannounced at Bagram Airfield in Afghanistan, on his way to meet with President Karzai.

Peter Bergen, CNN’s national security analyst and author of Manhunt, the Ten Year Search for Bin Laden, said President Obama’s surprise visit should be viewed “in the context of the NATO summit to be held in Chicago on May 20th. “   At that time, Bergen said, the heads of state of NATO will affirm an agreement that will assure a U.S. presence “in some form” in Afghanistan for ten more years.

“A good thing in my view,” said Bergen.  “Afghans were worried we’d turn out the lights in 2014; this reassures the Afghans and also helps the hedging strategies of Pakistan and other countries.”

Richard Clarke, former Senior Advisor On Counter Terrorism to Presidents Clinton and Bush, said President Obama’s visit also sends a public message to the Taliban and their supporters “that the U.S. isn’t going to disappear in a year or two.”

Clarke added, “This agreement says U.S. combat forces may go but special forces, intelligence apparatus, and air forces are likely to stay on as long as they are needed.”

FULL POST

In his first sit-down interview in years, former Israeli Prime Minister Ehud Olmert is revealing and controversial speaking with CNN's Christiane Amanpour.

by Lucky Gold

Something in my trust is lacking

Ehud Olmert, Israel’s former Prime Minister, has spoken out on the widening rift between Israel’s security community and the two men who would make the ultimate decision to attack Iran’s nuclear program – Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and Defense Minister Ehud Barak.

In an exclusive interview on Amanpour, Olmert admitted he was “worried” that a preemptive attack on Iran could be a “terrible, terrible mistake for the security and the well-being of Israel.”

Speaking of Netanyahu and Barak, he said, “You have to have full trust in the judgment of those who have to take decisions.  And you could understand from what I said that maybe something in my trust is lacking.”  Asked if he doesn’t have full trust (in the Netanyahu government), Olmert said: “Apparently.”

“We have to create a capacity to defend ourselves,” said Olmert, but Israel should not “rush for certain military actions which are not essential at this point.”

Calculating the steps

When asked if he concurred with the head of the Israel Defense Forces, General Benny Gantz, that Iran’s leadership is rational, Olmert said:  “I know one thing, that the Iranian leadership has not gone beyond a certain line for the time being of developing the nuclear program.”

He added, “And that shows that they are at least thoughtful, which means that they are not rushing, but they are calculating the steps, being aware of the possible ramifications of what they do.”

Olmert was asked to compare the situation in Iran with that in Syria five years ago, when he was Israel’s Prime Minister.  At that time, Syria was developing a nuclear reactor and Israel reportedly launched a clandestine attack to destroy it.

Olmert said, “I think the attempt to draw a comparison between Iran and Syria is false, misleading and dangerous.”
Without ever acknowledging that he ordered an attack, he said:  “The reactor in Syria was about to be operated within days, and therefore there was no time to wait.  You could either do it or you have an atomic reactor that would produce a bomb.”

“In Iran,” he said, “The situation is different.  There is time.  The international is community fully aware.  Everyone knows.  The President of the United States is fully committed to work against it.  And therefore this is a big difference.”

Military action in Iran, he said, should be “the last resort.”  He further stated, “I prefer it would be an American action supported by the international community if all the other efforts would fail.”  He added, “Israel shouldn’t lead it.  America should lead it.”

No Friendship, No Cooperation

In a pointed reference to Prime Minister Netanyahu’s contentious meeting with President Obama in Washington last May, Olmert said it was essential that Israel cooperate with America “from a respectful and serious and careful attitude and not trying to teach the president of America or preach to the president of America or blame the president of America, but rather cooperate with him.”

When asked if Prime Minister Netanyahu appears willing to seek such cooperation with President Obama, Olmert said “My impression is that there is no friendship and that there is no cooperation.”

In contrast, Olmert said he believes President Obama is a friend of Israel – “I have no doubt about it.”